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Market Timing

Sunday, May 30 2021
Remember, when using MIPS Signals, we can trade one or more of the SPY, QQQ, IWM or DIA indices.  And we can use leverage between 1.0x-1.5x on Long signals and between 0.5x-1.0x on Short signals. I personally trade 50% SPY and 50% QQQ, and I use leverage of 1.5x Long and 0.5x Short. Some of our more aggressive members trade 2.0x Long and 1.0x Short. This grows more, but is way more highly volatile.
The graph below is MIPS3 with my trading allocation above in the market since 2007 (verified by TimerTrac.com).
- call me if you have questions.
      QQQ (with 1.5x /0.5x leverage)     $10,000 => $189,000
      SPY (with 1..5x / 0.5x leverage)    $10.000 => $118,000
      SPY (with no leverage)                 $10,000 => $78,000
      S&P Index                                      $10,000 => $30,000
image.png
SO, WHAT's GOING ON NOW WITH THE CURRENT MIPS SiGNAL (since 06/26/2020) ???
Many MIPS members are now very "anxious" ro know why the MIPS models have been Long for the past 11 months (with no shorts).  Many don't really understand that quantitative models (like MIPS) are only supposed to change positions (Long-to-Short, or Short-to-Long) when the market changes direction (from down-to-up or from up-to-down),  In quantitative terminology, the exact time of these directional changes are called "Inflection Points" and those are what MIPS is looking for.  What makes this so difficult is that for each correct Inflection Point there are multiple fakes changes.  The recent market has really WREAKED HAVOC on many other commercial quant models; but not on MIPS !!!
 
So, how has MIPS performed with the last Long Signal since 6/26/2020
- see graph immediately below
Since 6/26/2020
QQQ with 1.5x / 0.5x L/S leverage =   +69%
SPY  with 1.5x / 0.5x Leverage       =  +57%
 
image.png

 
Now, let's examine possible future "market drops"
- there are multiple, identifiable ways that stock markets "go down"
- our reaction to each "drop" should be different

Since the stock market basically goes up most of the time, quant models are mostly looking for corrections and market crashes (market drops) that happen in up markets.
- below are some definitions of typical market drops (and how quant models should react to each)...
 
1) Normal "Dips"
   In long-term up-markets (like now)
    - stock markets move in cycles (like a sine wave)
    - this means that an up market will experience normal ups-and-downs along the way
   - this is what has happened in the last 11 months
   - along the way, the MIPS models have determined that these drops are normal, not a new serious drop of 20-50%
   - many commercial models that have tried to capitalize on these small dips have gotten whipsawed (big losses, up and down)
  Nothing special causes dips this, as it is "the norm" of movements for bid-and-ask markets
2) Corrections
    The investment community has named a market drop of over 10%-15% (but not over 20%) a "Correction" in the market
    - most corrections happen in normal markets as the result of some "bad-news events", not from bad economic business fundamentals
    - a good example of this was the correction between 4Q'19 thru 1Q'20 that resulted from bad news regarding the Brexit
    - during this time, the market fell in almost a straight line from the beginning-to-end of 4Q'19 and fully recovered in a straight line by the end of 1Q'20
    - the pattern for this type of correction would be called a "V-Bottom" 
   In addition, many corrections result from extremely overbought markets (where investors have pushed up stock prices way higher than they are worth)
3) Market Crashes
    Market crashes are when market indices (like the DOW, S&P500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000) drop over 50% in a one or two year period
    - in the market crash of the 2000 recession, the Nasdaq index dropped over 60% and took over 16 years to recover
    - in the market crash of the 2008 financial crisis, the SP500 dropped 55% and recovered within the next two years
   Normally, Market crashes result from a very poor economy (like a recession or depression).
    - by poor economy, we mean low consumer spending, lower business revenues, lower profits, higher debt, high borrowing rates, etc
    - this is like being in a slow moving, bad news environment with a relative long-time recovery
    - in the market crash from the depression in 1929, the market fell 90% in 2 years and took over 20+ years to recover
   Under no conditions (except using Quantitative models that hedge by effective shorting), should you be fully invested in a market crash.
4) MIPS in the 2008 crash:
   Below is the actual performance of MIPS in the crash of 2008
 Red dots are trade dates                        4Q'07-1Q'09  =>       MIPS3  +155%       SPY (buy/hold)  -54%   
image.png

 

In the meantime, and no matter what you decide to do in the future, keep using MIPS Signals as your guidance for now.
Call me (10am-10pm, CDT - six days/week)
Paul Distefano, PhD
CEO / Founder
MIPS Timing Systems, LLC
Houston, TX
281-251-MIPS(6477)
408-234-8348 (cell)
 
Posted by: Dr. G Paul Distefano AT 04:51 pm   |  Permalink   |  Email

MIPS Timing Systems
P.O. Box 925214
Houston, TX  77292

An affordable and efficient stock market timing tool. Contact MIPS
281-251-MIPS (6477)
E-mail: support@mipstiming.com