Members are familiar with the MIPS models having an up-bias since the Presidential elections ("Long" signals over 99% of the time) . We have been in a strong up-market since then (except for the turmoil in 1Q'18), so this MIPS behavior should be expected. During this time, lots of other models have suffered from way too much trading (for no reason known to me).
So, from the MIPS viewpoint, what do "things" look like now ?
Since MIPS is basically a trend following model, it is up strong. But if the strong uptrend continues, our reversion-to-the-mean algos could kick in and reverse the MIPS up-bias. Or, the market itself could collapse. None of us really knows what the market will do from here, nor do we know how MIPS will respond.
So, all we can really do is to wait for MIPS to tell us what to do. Don't miss it, as it could be a biggie either up or down.
S&P 500 Index Long-Term Trend (since 2012)
SPY Near All-Time High
QQQ Over All-Time Highs
Paul Distefano, PhD
CEO / Founder
MIPS Timing Systems, LLC