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Market Timing

Thursday, January 17 2013
It looks like we are at a "Tipping Point" in the market for 1Q'13.  Let's look at the performance of the SPY since 12/31/12.  We received an overdue Christmas present on 12/31/12, as the SPY roared up over 2% on that day. On the first trading day of this year (1/02/13), the SPY "gapped up" and closed even higher on this day's close at 146.06. Overall, these two trading days accounted for a total gain of about 4.7%, with high volume on both days!!!  Thanks for the good start, big guys.

Since then, the SPY has formed a classic "up flag" pattern, but on low volume (the big guys letting the little guys push the market even higher).  Today we almost saw an impressive break of the SPY to the upside of this pattern, but instead the SPY closed at or near the top of this pattern's upper range at $148.0/share.  By the way, this is above the 4-year high for the SPY of $146.99/share on 1/02/08.  If we break out of this pattern decisively to the upside, we believe that we will see new all-time highs for the SPY (and other indices) in the first half of 2013.

[My opinion, and my opinion only, is that the big guys (Goldman Sachs, etc.) will let the little guys (those of us with less than $20 million) push the market to all-time highs.  And, just about when all of the little guys have 80-90% of their portfolios in equities, the big guys will sell the market down big-time.  BTW, I developed MIPS to help me trade with quantitative analysis rather than with my opinions, and MIPS has been very, very successful on that issue.]

Posted by: Dr. G. Paul Distefano AT 11:17 pm   |  Permalink   |  Email

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