Was the market up or down in the last 4 weeks? Neither. The market (SPY) has been up and down in the last 4 weeks, three times each. The net effect was the SPY bouncing at plus and minus 0.8% around the "mean line" of about $183.36/share. Not very exciting. See the graph below.
Of course, this will not go on forever, and the SPY will once again break out of this most recent sideways trading pattern. My bet is to the upside, but no one can be sure about that. With QE3 alive and well under Yellen, being long is most likely a very good bet.
However, many indicators (both fundamental and technical) are signaling the high probability of a "correction" of at least 5-20% in 2014, but who really knows. What we can be sure of is that one day the market will take a dive that could result in another big "crash". But when? Don't know, and that is why we use MIPS.